Monday, February 11, 2019

Gold Implying $1,340/oz by March Based on the Options Market

Based on the option chain for the underlying SPDR Gold Shares (GLD:NYSE), we can see the heavier open interestes around US$1,240/oz to US$1,270/oz for the SPDR Gold ETF.  Since this ETF trades at an approximate U$70/oz discount to the actual spot gold price, thereby implying a ~US$1,340/oz gold price. 

With US governemnt shutdowns, deteriorating Chinese economic and default data, calming but still outstanding trade wars, some central bank buying and flattening interest rates it may be easy to see a US$55/oz increase in the near term.


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