It has been revealed that StatsCan does not distinguish beteween "tourist" and "Canadian" for entering leaving or returning to Canada. (In fact, Economist Benjamin Tal earlier on BNN estimated the only way to do it is by counting the tax returns that have been filed, and even that is backward looking by years, to have any remote guess).
Also, it has been said there are 300,000 ex-pat Canadians in Hong Kong. Which, the way China is throwing its influence around and may eliminate dual citizenships, will result in many returing to Canada (if not already returned - no one knows).
The problem is, this widely agreed 300,000 number is from...2006. Today, it is 2021. As CIBC economist Benjamin Tal estimates, this could be as high as 400,000 or the equivalent of an entire year's worth of the Liberals' expanded future immigration goals that could be returning (or have returned already, again no one can verify). In addition to the high 300,000 estimated to arrive this year (+700,000).
In addition, non-permanent residents who are no longer allowed to be in Canada yet still are not counted and could amount to 60,000 as referenced by Tal.
Doesn't sound like much versus a population of nearly 37 million Canadians - if you believe that number. The impact? Housing (and many other policies such as healthcare, border security, roads, policing, etc.). With such a sudden shock of additionally hundreds of thousands of people, Canadians, immigrants, permanent residents (not to mention visa holders, express entry workers, students, parent and grandparent reunifications), could result in, say, an entire year's worth of real estate transactions dumped on to the city of Toronto all of a sudden, for context! On top of the crazy volume and activity we are already seeing.
Wonder why the real estate market is so high right now? StatsCan doesn't know, that's for sure.
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