Tuesday, January 9, 2018

The State of Canada's Capital Markets: Hundreds of "Zombie" Shell Companies

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-09/novogratz-is-latest-to-tap-canada-s-junior-bourse-in-crypto-push

The state of your Vancouver Stock Exchange, "The TSX Venture Exchange has hundreds of "zombie" shells that can provide access to listings via reverse takeovers."

Thankfully, a lot of investors that were burned on the set up of these "hundreds" of companies will see a return out of their time wasted, their money wasted (on management teams paying themselves six-figure salaries) and will be pro

My hunch is that this is all going to blow up anyway (cryptocurrencies and marijuana industries).  So it may provide some temporary hope.  

Also, comforting to know that Canadians are paying people not in one but 13 different jurisdictions to "monitor" these zombie entities.  

Friday, January 5, 2018

Heads in The Sand: Eloquently Put or Not, Foreign Ownership of Real Estate Is a Much More Colossal lssue than Canadians Tend to Think

Last year, the world’s watchdog into money laundering and terrorist financing — the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) launched by the G7 and United Nations – gave Canada a failing grade because of its legal and real estate loopholes.

Hats off to Diane Francis for putting in print what many know, but the masses (including our elected officials who pass the laws) will not admit.  It is a huge problem that has lead to a lot of complaining around water coolers, barbecues, hockey rinks, Tim Horton's queues and even the Canadian media.  As Canadians, we are now stuck facing this "real estate inflation" that Canada has imported upon itself.  In other words, Canada is to blame for the state of a frothy real estate market and allowed the factors involved to align in this over-heated market that requires a lot of capital from home owners, investors and speculators in many cases, stretching themselves too thin. 

Not mentioned in this article, but the Globe & Mail blew the doors open (c. January 2015) on a little known but legal clause called "assignment of contract" and how rampant it was in Vancouver, whereby many home sellers were ready to close with the buyer they thought they sold to only to find a different buyer upon closing that paid an extra 10% to 20% on top of the price the sellers thought they sold for (see link below).  Did the original sellers receive that extra gain? No way, the "assignment" allowed the thought-to-be buyer to then re-sell within months (usually knowingly from a group of foreign buyer looking to plop down or park +C$1.0M at a time). 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/the-real-estate-technique-fuelling-vancouvers-housing-market/article28634868/

Now as Canadians, we are left with stress tests that are making it more difficult to enter the market or keeping Canadian buyers out of the market entirely.  Yet the taxpayer CMHC continues to do its dirty work, while non-Canadians benefit from what is arguably good value for a +$1.0M home - rule of law in Canada, no real checking of source of funds (criminal or not), children easily allowed to take spots in post secondary educational institutions, all under the guise of a non-resident for tax purposes. 

And you thought kiwis were just a great fruit!

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Does This PM (and Liberal Advisors) Know No "Right Versus Wrong" or the Concpet of Checks and Balances?

Nothing left to say after the head shaking while reading this...

But when will his own Liberal party stop him?

Of note, the context around "they were ostensibly “backpacking in Afghanistan.” The phrase dances off the tongue a bit like “scuba diving in Yemen” or “gastronomic tour of Somalia”: not inconceivable, but the Boyles will not have been surprised to learn that some in the U.S. intelligence community were suspicious. They reportedly refused an American military flight home over fears — perfectly reasonable ones, surely — that they might wind up stuck at Bagram Airfield." is not only a classic and cheeky poke, but is something not every journalist would put to (online) paper.  

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/chris-selley-photos-bring-trudeaus-seriousness-into-question-and-the-backlash-could-be-legendary

Recent Findings About Minimum Wage Increases - Apparently Results in Job Losses, Who Knew?!

For those that are interested in "sources", here are the documents that have fostered many easy headlines for the media today

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/san2017-26.pdf

http://fao-on.org/en/Blog/Publications/minimum_wage

Will the Real Picture of the Toronto Housing Market Please Stand Up

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-04/toronto-home-prices-fall-for-seventh-month-as-lending-tightens

It is shocking that a body of this importance (Toronto Real Estate Board or TREB) charged with compiling data in order to help Torontonians, Canadians and those wanting to live here with the largest purchase of their lives, only has data going back to 2000.  Regardless of this biased group (both compiler of the "independent" information and the governor of the agents to execute these transactions), the language of "the largest seven-month decline" should be taken in context.  

It appears the stress test measures have (temporarily) done their jobs i) keeping inexperienced yet wide-eyed first time buyers from landing themselves in financial stress and ii) reducing the lighter fluid already placed on a raging bonfire.  


Wednesday, January 3, 2018

...And a Summary of Canada 2018 from Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-03/trudeau-embraces-the-economy-just-as-it-begins-to-gear-down

In deflecting all the nonsense that both Justin and his "trusted" Finance Minister Morneau found themselves in (thanks to Liberal above-the-law entitlement), now Trudeau wants to highlight the economy.  This coming from a leader who piles on deficits upon deficits. 

The thing is, when did employment dipping below 6.0% become something to brag about? Especially after it has taken nine years to recover form the global financial crisis of 2008.  Historical averages have been ~4.0%. 

More smoke and mirrors from the Justin and his merry band of over taxing Liberals. 


The Outlook for 2018 in Canada - No January Effect Here

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/canada-stocks-set-for-meager-gains-in-2018-strategists-say

Happy New Year.  It is the early days of 2018 and with all early January print (and non print) media, predictions are abound. 

It's always difficult to be in the role in portraying yourself as the holder of a crystal ball; however, as of New Year's day, Canada woke up to a new federal carbon tax (thank you Justin, McKenna), while in Ontario, a new day has brought higher minimum wages (thank you Kathleen) that are impacting thousands of small businesses across the province...overnight. 

While the banks, telecoms and REIT's are chugging along on our TSX and (paying some great dividends in some cases), Canada's bread and butter resource industries (mining, oil and gas) have no returns to brag about, not to mention a very real risk now of a NAFTA-less world and a house of cards real estate market.  As such, the question of how long legalized marijuana growing companies will be around (in other words, when will the bubble burst?) must be asked as it is the only bright spot on a publicly traded basis currently. 

As any curious neighbour would look over the fence into the adjacent backyard, Canada must wake up and look around to other countries and economies - other than the U.S.  Remember that looming NAFTA renegotiation?

Also of note, with Ontario elections coming up in 2018 (in six months) and federal elections in 2019, we are not far off to see the lingering effects of these impacts.