Real estate agents will tell you any number of reasons to keep the fear, FOMO and motivation going for potential buyers. Digging into the numbers...
Even the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, which has no business making economic forecasts, portrays the Canadian labour market as a job creating machine and permanent residents pouring in, demanding new housing. "Immigration into Canada is expected to be at or near record levels in 2022. On top of this job creation in average to above average income sectors is expected to remain strong."
In reality, Canada LOST 200,100 jobs in January and unemployment increased from 6.0% to 6.5%. This compares to the US that saw unemployment decrease to 4.0% and 457,000 jobs CREATED in January. Opposite directions. Canada's unemployment rate is 63% higher than the US!
With regards to immigration, like the global supply chain, it has been impacted too. Immigrants/permanent residents have NOT been flying/travelling to Canada over the last year due to border controls, cancelled flights, testing, overwhelmed by an under staffed immigration department, etc. Canada has in fact been awarding permanent residency to those ALREADY in the country under temporary measures (student, visitor, temp foreign worker) with significantly lower qualifying entrant scores to recklessly meet the (unscientific, no data based) 401,000 target for 2021. Canada did not receive the best and brightest of the bunch in 2021.
It is both criminal and laughable that in a month of Canada's worst annual weather (January) including a deep freeze in Calgary and the prairies, remnants of a colossal once in a 100 years flood in BC, the most snow in the GTA in 20 years, a major storm in Atlantic Canada that year over year listings are down 15.5%. Either Canadians' memories don't work during winter or the audacity of the untruths preached by TRREB is fraudulent, disrespectful, inconsiderate and taking advantage of their circumstance. Or both. Let the cries of "THERE'S NOT ENOUGH SUPPLY!" ring through the valley!
When there are less houses for sale/listings, especially in the cold month of January, then surprise, the number of transactions decrease (18.2% decrease in January, which means less commissions for real estate agents). Thanks TRREB for outlining that (without the point about commissions). As such, with demand increasing based on emotion and logically fewer sales, housing prices "magically" increase (28.6%, a misrepresented number for January 2022). Happy New Year TREBB. Stoking the fires for May again.
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